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Will wind and solar reach 10% in 2019?

The Energy Department released its March 2018 data. Today, I’ll summarize our analysis of the grid’s renewable generation in the first quarter.

The first quarter was a record setter. Because of the grid’s rapidly growing wind power production.

Grid wind produced 78 million megawatt-hours in the first quarter. That was an all-time record. It topped last year’s first quarter by 12.9 percent.

Those 78 million megawatt-hours were also 7.8 percent of the grid’s generation. That was another all-time record. The first quarters of the last two years came in at 7.3 percent and 6.2 percent. Before 2016, wind never accounted for 5 percent, let alone more.

Grid solar produced 12.4 million megawatt-hours in the first quarter. That was an all-time record for a first quarter. Being solar, the not-as-sunny first quarter is not the best.

Those 12.4 million megawatt-hours were also 1.2 percent of the grid’s generation. That was another all-time record for a first quarter. The first quarters of the last two years came in at 1 percent and 0.7 percent. Before 2016, grid solar never accounted for more than 0.5 percent.

If you sum the grid’s wind and solar, their production was 9 percent of grid generation in the first quarter. An all-time record of course. In next year’s first quarter, will we see wind and solar reach 10 percent?

Grid wind set still another record for a first quarter. Wind’s production exceeded hydro’s production. It hadn’t before this year.

If you add to the sum, with the two other no-emission sources, hydro and nuclear, 37.4 percent of grid generation was no-emission in the first quarter. If we can maintain this level of nuclear production — a challenge considering the nuclear plant retirements — then the grid can be expected to regularly exceed 40 percent no-emission.

What about home solar roofs and other customer solar? How do they measure up?

In the first quarter, home solar roofs throughout the nation produced 3.4 million megawatt-hours. Other customer solar such as at offices, warehouses and retail buildings produced another 2.5 million megawatt-hours. All customer solar amounted to less than half of grid solar.

 

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Steve Mitnick, Editor-in-Chief, Public Utilities Fortnightly, and President, Lines Up, Inc.
E-mail me: mitnick@fortnightly.com